Soapbox: About the Industry

Cassandra's Industry Report

by Sandy Antunes
Jun 03,2005

Cassandra's Industry Report

by Sandy Antunes

Cassandra was famous for making prophecies no one would believe, until it was too late. I now join her lofty ranks, for it's time for me to predict the fate of the RPG industry.

Judging by recent market reports, the RPG industry (or, if you prefer, the tabletop game industry) is in a minor cusp of change. As I'll show here, it's going to come down to 'adapt or die'. Fortunately, as gamers themselves, most publishers have the skills they need to survive and prosper-- if they act wisely. That means following my advice here, if you have the vision to keep up.

First, the market. The combination of sluggishness in perceived "core" items spotlighted by the strong success of a rare few hits pretty much defines the current state of affairs. But the hits aren't accidents-- instead, they're smart, snazzy games that are bolstered by clever marketing.

Even the current crop of 'everygreens' (products that consistently sell and don't depend on novelty value) is affected. Not so strongly-- it's likely nothing will upset "Settlers" or any Reiner Knizer design from their place in the steady sales category-- but 'evergreen' isn't a promise.

What this shift means is retailers have to stay more up to date on matters. Just running a 'push' store and basing your orders on customer orders won't work anymore. For publishers, this means you can't shove the blame to the retailer, and expect pre-orders to sustain you. Instead, retailers have to 'push' the good stuff-- things that sell _and_ stuff that brings customers back into the store again. And publishers have to market so gamers go to stores.

But-- hear me out! -- first you have to ditch last year's trend. Yeah, we know you made a lot of money, but check your current sell-through-- bet you're not moving as much as you think. That category is oversaturated. Cut down to the one or two SKUs that actually sell (not just what you hope sells) and look to your other items. Too many publisher variants have glutted it, and the glut has made customers jaded.

They'll be moving on soon, and you have to anticipate it. If you're a publisher, that means you have a rare window to score with the newer market trends, led by only two companies right now (and, hint, neither is Hasbro/WotC). First hinted at last year (last year!) at GTS and now finally about to hit their stride, right now is when a quick publisher can try to make their claim before the inevitable bandwagoning. At the other recent show, a lot of companies made noise, but we all know it's the quiet ones that are planning their 'attack in depth'.

Among all this, the internet still looms. Discounters remain a hurdle for retailers and a Hobson's choice for publishers. PDFs and downloadables continue to gain steam. Neverless, the dollars are still in the hobby, albeit in shrinking numbers, for saavy publishers and retailers who follow my advice.

Finally, beware reading too many industry columns. Many people are excellent at predicting things in retrospect. Others sound good, but simply string together cliches and vague analyses too... umm... I don't like where this train of thought is heading. Just remember, if you don't listen to me, you're doooomed! And if you do listen, well, remember that all my advice wasn't expecting that one big change that hits the market just... about... now.

Good luck!

Until next month,
Sandy
sandy@rpg.net
freelance