Author: Dave (---.gtw.net)
Date: 06-19-2002 12:31
The analysis of taking 20 seems a little misleading. You seem to be under the mistaken impression that, most of the time, 20 rolls should be sufficient to have rolled 20, which is not quite true. Rather, for a 1/20 shot, 20 trials is the *average* number required. Sure, on a given round of trials it may take you more than 20 rolls 1/3 of the time to get a 20, but if you try rolling till you get a 20 numerous times, you'll find that the average number of rolls necessary is in fact 20, or close to it.
Taking 20 only applies to tasks which can be done indefinately without penalty (except, perhaps, lack of food on the part of the try-ee). Therefore, it's best looked at as though each roll is a "check" on whether the last X amount of time working is enough yet to complete the project. E.g, you're continually working on a task, and usually a safe time estimate is twenty times the minimum time of one roll.
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